Today the Irish Independent and Millward Brown published their IMS Poll results.
To say that it is devastating to the government and Fianna Fail is an understatement. However, given the current economic situation and its mismanagement I'm sure it comes to no one's surprise that;
- 86pc don't rate the Government
- 72pc don't rate the Taoiseach
- FF support has plummeted to 25pc
What needs real examination is who are the winners in this collapse in Fianna Fail Support.
First let's examine the parties positions relative to the last election.
Fianna Gael 30% (up 2%)
Fianna Fail 25% (down 17%)
Labour 22% (up 12%)
Independents 10% (up 4%)
Sinn Fein 7% (no change)
Greens 5% (no change)
Obviously FF are getting a kicking but surprisingly the Greens holding steady, with Labour being seen as the people's representative (and I'll come back to this) getting most of the gains.
What is of particular interest is how little FG have increased. Now a large amount of this can be put down to Enda Kenny's poor approval rating (behind Gilmore, and Cowen) in relation to his ability to manage our way out of this economic crisis. However, this alone does not explain it...I honestly believe that most people when they look at FG and FF find it very difficult to see a real difference between them. In terms of policy position they are both centre-right, are funded by similar industry sectors, and other than ye olde treaty politics have little between them! I believe that consciously and unconsciously people are coming to this realisation.
Labour have made big gains, but I think everyone needs to be 100% clear on something here. Labour are here to represent the wishes and goals of the workers, and in particular unionised workers, even if that manifests itself in policies that will damage the economy.
We all need to be aware that Gilmore has been completely lacking on specifics on how to solve this economic problem, is unwilling to set out what tough decisions he would take, particularly in relation to the Public Sector yet despite this the Labour Party leader has persuaded the public that he can be trusted to manage the economy.
Finally, the poll shows that there is a 52% of people would like to see an election, I am not sure that this is such a great idea. Based on the above you will either get a Labour - FG or FF coalition OR as an outside bet FF&FG coalition. The first option is an obvious one as with the idea for a national government is highly flawed. You will have a pair of partners, one with business and private enterprise at its core, trying to meet in the middle with a group focused on protecting unions etc. In short to vote this option in can only lead to more of the same as a coalition will not make ANY of the tough decisions.
As for option 2, how could this possibly be? Firstly, from a policy position there is very very little between FG and FF. They are both Centre right parties and as such may be able to make some of the tough decisions out there. Secondly this poll shows that the era of "treaty politics" is coming to a close with over 50% of those who voted for FF in the last election saying that they would not do so in the future. The natural home for those votes (treaty politics aside) is FG.
Unfortunately none of the above inspire me with hope :(
RB
Friday, February 27, 2009
Thursday, February 26, 2009
Ever wondered how you could get into the Dail?
Well I did, and here is what I found out :)
To be eligible for membership of the Dáil:
To be eligible for membership of the Dáil:
- You must be a citizen of Ireland
- You must be over 21 years of age and
- You must not be disqualified from election to the Dáil
How do you become a Dáil candidate?
- In order to be nominated for membership of the Dáil, you may either nominate yourself or a Dáil elector may nominate you.
- You must complete a "nomination paper" and present it to the returning officer of the constituency in which you are standing.
- Candidates must either produce a Certificate of Party Affiliation or a document containing 30 signatures of registered voters.
- You must apply to the returning officer for your constituency who is either the County Sheriff or the County Registrar. Contact information for the returning officer for your constituency is available from the Franchise Section of your local authority.
But does it not cost money to put yourself forward for nomination?
- There is no longer a requirement to pay a deposit to be nominated for membership of the Dáil.
- As a candidate at a Dáil election, you are entitled to send one election letter free of postage charge to every elector in the constituency. If you are a member of a political party with another candidate in the constituency, you will only be allowed one election letter free of postage charge between you.
How could a candidate hope to go up against the politicial parties?
Constituency by constituency is the answer!!
- The 1997 Act sets down limits so that candidates are only allowed to spend a certain amount on elections. The maximum that a candidate can spend on a Dáil election is
· €45,000 per candidate in a five-seat constituency
· €37,650 per candidate in a four-seat constituency
· €30,150 per candidate in a three-seat constituency
The 1997 Act also created a system of reimbursement of election expenses. If a candidate received at least one-quarter of the quota of votes for the constituency in which he or she ran, he or she may apply for a reimbursement of up to €8,700 of his or her election expenses.
So there you have it folks when you are talking with your friends abou the current situation know that you can make a change! All it will cost you is 30 friends, and some time....think on this...!!!
Now its the unions turn to get the boot in.........
Today the unions start their assualt on the weakest members of our society....no doubt they will claim this is the only action open to them....
BUT IS IT RIGHT? that the unions, the self proclaimed protectors of the downtroddenworking classes, target the absolute weakest members of our society to maket their point?? Do not be fooled by their cries of "we did not have a choice", that "the government made us do it"....the leadership of the unions have made the call to do this....no body else.
The RESPONSIBILITY for all the disruption and hardship that will befall those most affected by this will ALL lie at the feet of the unions!!
So you see folks when push comes to shove, politicians, bankers and the unions will ALWAYS do what's in their interests rather than whats in the greater goods interest....
Full article can be found here.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0226/breaking3.htm
BUT IS IT RIGHT? that the unions, the self proclaimed protectors of the downtroddenworking classes, target the absolute weakest members of our society to maket their point?? Do not be fooled by their cries of "we did not have a choice", that "the government made us do it"....the leadership of the unions have made the call to do this....no body else.
The RESPONSIBILITY for all the disruption and hardship that will befall those most affected by this will ALL lie at the feet of the unions!!
So you see folks when push comes to shove, politicians, bankers and the unions will ALWAYS do what's in their interests rather than whats in the greater goods interest....
Full article can be found here.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/0226/breaking3.htm
Wednesday, February 25, 2009
Obama's First Address to Congress.......
I was up late nast night to sit up and watch Obama's first speech to congress. (The full transcript can be found here http://www.irishtimes.com/focus/2009/obamacongress/Obama_speech.pdf and some video here http://player.kamera.com/irishtimes/index.html)
Now like him or loathe him what you can say about the man is that he has a vision, and a plan to deliver on that vision. The man has confidence in his words and beliefs and conviction in his actions. Things sorely missing from the Irish Political Scene.
His vision??
"While our economy may be weakened and our confidence shaken, though we are living through difficult and uncertain times, tonight I want every American to know this: We will rebuild, we will recover, and the United States of America will emerge stronger than before,"
But how come we find ourselves in this mess??
"we have lived through an era where too often, short-term gains were prized over long-term prosperity; where we failed to look beyond the next payment, the next quarter, or the next election. A surplus became an excuse to transfer wealth to the wealthy instead of an opportunity to invest in our future. Regulations were gutted for the sake of a quick profit at the expense of a healthy market. People bought homes they knew they couldn't afford from banks and lenders who pushed those bad loans anyway. And all the while, critical debates and difficult decisions were put off for some other time on some other day.
Well that day of reckoning has arrived, and the time to take charge of our future is here."
So what are you going to do about it, what is this reckoning??
"The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act"
Over the next two years, this plan will save or create 3.5 million jobs. More than 90% of these jobs will be in the private sector - jobs rebuilding our roads and bridges; constructing wind turbines and solar panels; laying broadband and expanding mass transit.
Because of this plan, there are teachers who can now keep their jobs and educate our kids. Health care professionals can continue caring for our sick. There are 57 police officers who are still on the streets of Minneapolis tonight because this plan prevented the layoffs their department was about to make.
Because of this plan, 95% of the working households in America will receive a tax cut - a tax cut that you will see in your paychecks beginning on April 1st.
Because of this plan, families who are struggling to pay tuition costs will receive a $2,500 tax credit for all four years of college. And Americans who have lost their jobs in this recession will be able to receive extended unemployment benefits and continued health care coverage to help them weather this storm.
And what about accountability??
"I have told each member of my Cabinet as well as mayors and governors across the country that they will be held accountable by me and the American people for every dollar they spend. I have appointed a proven and aggressive Inspector General to ferret out any and all cases of waste and fraud. And we have created a new website called recovery.gov so that every American can find out how and where their money is being spent."
But what about the bankers and those that got us into this mess why do they get off Scott free??
"I intend to hold these banks fully accountable for the assistance they receive, and this time, they will have to clearly demonstrate how taxpayer dollars result in more lending for the American taxpayer. This time, CEOs won't be able to use taxpayer money to pad their paychecks or buy fancy drapes or disappear on a private jet. Those days are over."
"I know how unpopular it is to be seen as helping banks right now, especially when everyone is suffering in part from their bad decisions. I promise you - I get it. But I also know that in a time of crisis, we cannot afford to govern out of anger, or yield to the politics of the moment. My job - our job - is to solve the problem. Our job is to govern with a sense of responsibility. I will not spend a single penny for the purpose of rewarding a single Wall Street executive, but I will do whatever it takes to help the small business that can't pay its workers or the family that has saved and still can't get a mortgage.
That's what this is about. It's not about helping banks - it's about helping people. Because when credit is available again, that young family can finally buy a new home. And then some company will hire workers to build it. And then those workers will have money to spend, and if they can get a loan too, maybe they'll finally buy that car, or open their own business. Investors will return to the market, and American families will see their retirement secured once more. Slowly, but surely, confidence will return, and our economy will recover.
I think you can all get the drift...read it and then ponder on the vacuum of political leadership here :(
Now like him or loathe him what you can say about the man is that he has a vision, and a plan to deliver on that vision. The man has confidence in his words and beliefs and conviction in his actions. Things sorely missing from the Irish Political Scene.
His vision??
"While our economy may be weakened and our confidence shaken, though we are living through difficult and uncertain times, tonight I want every American to know this: We will rebuild, we will recover, and the United States of America will emerge stronger than before,"
But how come we find ourselves in this mess??
"we have lived through an era where too often, short-term gains were prized over long-term prosperity; where we failed to look beyond the next payment, the next quarter, or the next election. A surplus became an excuse to transfer wealth to the wealthy instead of an opportunity to invest in our future. Regulations were gutted for the sake of a quick profit at the expense of a healthy market. People bought homes they knew they couldn't afford from banks and lenders who pushed those bad loans anyway. And all the while, critical debates and difficult decisions were put off for some other time on some other day.
Well that day of reckoning has arrived, and the time to take charge of our future is here."
So what are you going to do about it, what is this reckoning??
"The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act"
Over the next two years, this plan will save or create 3.5 million jobs. More than 90% of these jobs will be in the private sector - jobs rebuilding our roads and bridges; constructing wind turbines and solar panels; laying broadband and expanding mass transit.
Because of this plan, there are teachers who can now keep their jobs and educate our kids. Health care professionals can continue caring for our sick. There are 57 police officers who are still on the streets of Minneapolis tonight because this plan prevented the layoffs their department was about to make.
Because of this plan, 95% of the working households in America will receive a tax cut - a tax cut that you will see in your paychecks beginning on April 1st.
Because of this plan, families who are struggling to pay tuition costs will receive a $2,500 tax credit for all four years of college. And Americans who have lost their jobs in this recession will be able to receive extended unemployment benefits and continued health care coverage to help them weather this storm.
And what about accountability??
"I have told each member of my Cabinet as well as mayors and governors across the country that they will be held accountable by me and the American people for every dollar they spend. I have appointed a proven and aggressive Inspector General to ferret out any and all cases of waste and fraud. And we have created a new website called recovery.gov so that every American can find out how and where their money is being spent."
But what about the bankers and those that got us into this mess why do they get off Scott free??
"I intend to hold these banks fully accountable for the assistance they receive, and this time, they will have to clearly demonstrate how taxpayer dollars result in more lending for the American taxpayer. This time, CEOs won't be able to use taxpayer money to pad their paychecks or buy fancy drapes or disappear on a private jet. Those days are over."
"I know how unpopular it is to be seen as helping banks right now, especially when everyone is suffering in part from their bad decisions. I promise you - I get it. But I also know that in a time of crisis, we cannot afford to govern out of anger, or yield to the politics of the moment. My job - our job - is to solve the problem. Our job is to govern with a sense of responsibility. I will not spend a single penny for the purpose of rewarding a single Wall Street executive, but I will do whatever it takes to help the small business that can't pay its workers or the family that has saved and still can't get a mortgage.
That's what this is about. It's not about helping banks - it's about helping people. Because when credit is available again, that young family can finally buy a new home. And then some company will hire workers to build it. And then those workers will have money to spend, and if they can get a loan too, maybe they'll finally buy that car, or open their own business. Investors will return to the market, and American families will see their retirement secured once more. Slowly, but surely, confidence will return, and our economy will recover.
I think you can all get the drift...read it and then ponder on the vacuum of political leadership here :(
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
Who funds You??
A simple enough question on the face of it isn't it?
I mean if I ask you where do you get your money, you will be able to point out that you work for company X and in return you get income Y. You put a premium on your time and skills and the employer pays you for your services....! Simple really!
Now try ask this question of any of our political parties....I just have....and will be interested to see their responses!
What I can tell you is that there is no publicly accessible information about who funds them that's for sure....in fact the legislation around this (and regulation) is of the very same soft touch ilk that our financial regulator has used to date...
Why is this an important question you may ask? Well in the end of the day its simple. Any party can stand up there and say they represent the people etc etc....but when they are in a position of power who do you think they listen to? You, the electorate OR the people, businesses or unions that paid for them to get there??
In the coming months we will all be approached by politicians looking for our vote in the local and European elections....may I suggest that before a word get out of their mouths that you ask the question...."Who Funds You?" if you are happy with their answer let them proceed BUT if they are unable to answer you directly I suggest you shut the door in their face...
We have the right to know who we are voting for.....because when we vote we are not just voting in the face on the placard we are voting in those that fund them!!
Please pass it on, just ask that one simple question............
"WHO FUNDS YOU?"
RB
I mean if I ask you where do you get your money, you will be able to point out that you work for company X and in return you get income Y. You put a premium on your time and skills and the employer pays you for your services....! Simple really!
Now try ask this question of any of our political parties....I just have....and will be interested to see their responses!
What I can tell you is that there is no publicly accessible information about who funds them that's for sure....in fact the legislation around this (and regulation) is of the very same soft touch ilk that our financial regulator has used to date...
Why is this an important question you may ask? Well in the end of the day its simple. Any party can stand up there and say they represent the people etc etc....but when they are in a position of power who do you think they listen to? You, the electorate OR the people, businesses or unions that paid for them to get there??
In the coming months we will all be approached by politicians looking for our vote in the local and European elections....may I suggest that before a word get out of their mouths that you ask the question...."Who Funds You?" if you are happy with their answer let them proceed BUT if they are unable to answer you directly I suggest you shut the door in their face...
We have the right to know who we are voting for.....because when we vote we are not just voting in the face on the placard we are voting in those that fund them!!
Please pass it on, just ask that one simple question............
"WHO FUNDS YOU?"
RB
Questions & Answers
I have come to a realisation today.......
If you are;
Self employed / employed in the private sector,
Bought a home (as disctinct to an investment property) in the last 15 years, and feel that you were sold a pup...
Desire the efficient managment of the public sector (without beating up on it!) and,
proper regulation of our financial markets.....
It is sad to say that none of our current political parties can represent you...... :(
Many of the parties can buy into some of the above but no single party can actually follow through on this as it would clash with one if not more of their idealogical goals.....
If you are;
Self employed / employed in the private sector,
Bought a home (as disctinct to an investment property) in the last 15 years, and feel that you were sold a pup...
Desire the efficient managment of the public sector (without beating up on it!) and,
proper regulation of our financial markets.....
It is sad to say that none of our current political parties can represent you...... :(
Many of the parties can buy into some of the above but no single party can actually follow through on this as it would clash with one if not more of their idealogical goals.....
Monday, February 23, 2009
My First Blog
Hi all,
This is my first attempt at blogging so please go gentle on me.
I will be updating this page daily and more then liekly throwing my 2 cents worth about all the current issues around us today.
I hope that you enjoy :)
RB
This is my first attempt at blogging so please go gentle on me.
I will be updating this page daily and more then liekly throwing my 2 cents worth about all the current issues around us today.
I hope that you enjoy :)
RB
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